South Africa - One Year On

South Africa Incorporated has made steady progress over the past 12 months, says Anthony St John.

If politics is about the art of the possible, South Africa has seen remarkable progress over the past year under the new administration and in the midst of a global recession which is taking its toll in South Africa too.

In a world which is increasingly homogenised, globalised and digitalised, South Africa's President Zuma has proved to be a real live human being rooted in his people and culture.

In April, it will be a year since "Africa's Next Big Man" as he was dubbed by the Economist took the helm of Africa's largest economy and the nation widely seen as crucial to Africa's integration in the global economy.

In many ways President Zuma has confounded his critics and shown leadership in dealing with the formidable developmental challenges that his country faces even in good times let alone in a global recession and the loss of confidence in the global financial system.

And he has done so with the perception odds stacked against him following a history of litigation which many thought would disqualify him from the highest office in the land.

Zuma has stared down the left within his government on the fundamentals of economic policy but accommodated inputs which will improve delivery to the poor. He has committed his government to better delivery in health, education and services and he has drawn the line on unacceptable violence in trade union strikes.

He has taken a strong line on corruption and abuse of alcohol and permissiveness on television and he has committed his government to zero tolerance on crime.

He has made some very specific promises: the creation of half a million jobs by the end of this year and four million by 2014; a 50% cut in the HIV infection rate and 80% coverage with anti-retrovirals by 2011; and a 7% to 10% annual cut in the crime rate.

Zuma has a reasonable chance to deliver except on jobs which have been decimated by the global recession.

Zuma is a highly connected leader. He has become a lightning rod for robust debates on the most controversial topics: nationalisation on the mines, polygamy, sex outside marriage, state intervention in the economy, the centrality of the judiciary and many more. And he has found that freedom of expression and a robust media has implications for the highest office of the land.

But the scorecard thus far is looking impressive: Zuma won universal acclaim for his announcement on World Aids Day last year (1st December) that all children under one year of age who tested positive would receive treatment regardless of their CD count.

He has backed up his commitments on service delivery by paying surprise visits on inefficient councils and lazy or corrupt mayors. He has acknowledged the challenges facing the country and urged a national debate and communal efforts to resolve them.

He has admitted that fundamental mistakes were made with the marginalisation of the mining industry, the lack of focus in education on basic skills and training and the lack of a national plan and evaluation in government.

Zuma's performance in his first year prompted TIME magazine to ask in a take-out late last year on "South Africa 20 years after Nelson Mandela's release from jail": "Could Zuma be the leader South Africa is waiting for?"

The political stability that was achieved with transition to democracy in 1994 is now taken as a given. The institutions of democracy are generally much stronger than they were a year ago and Parliament and its committees have undergone a sustained process of renewal.

With South Africa's upcoming hosting of the FIFA 2010 World Cup in June, the economy has received a much needed injection amid global recession and the nation is rallying around what has become the only game in town: making Africa's first World Cup a resounding success.

This resurgence of optimism is already resulting in a modest flow of skills back into the country as South Africans abroad many of whom have lost jobs in the global recession - see new opportunities back home.

Mr Zuma has placed the macro-economic management of the country in steady hands and he has demonstrated that his commitment to sound fiscal and growth-oriented policies is long-term.

This is not to suggest that Zuma does not face massive challenges: managing the raised expectations of the poor and an increasingly educated but unemployed youth would be a volatile mix for the most seasoned politician.

The President has identified the biggest challenge of all: there is no-one to speak for the growing numbers of unemployed, while the ANC speaks for the middle-class and the trade unions represent the workers.

Infrastructural decay in the electricity grid, the national health care system and in the distribution and management of water are all warning signs which require the urgent attention and the mobilisation of all available skills inside and outside the country.

In his first year at the helm, Zuma has created a remarkably inclusive government and he has reconciled with those who have been sharply critical of him personally notably Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille and Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

He has also followed through on his commitment to aspire to the values and example set by former President Nelson Mandela and used the occasion of the 20th anniversary of Mandela's release from prison to frame his State of the Nation speech (11th February).

Zuma is also to be commended for his honesty in spelling out even in his inauguration speech the inevitable pain that the global economic recession will inflict on resource-rich South Africa.

More recently, he returned to this theme by meeting news of South Africa's emergence from recession with a warning that the recovery could be long and hard and even prove to be temporary.

Zuma has begun to put his pragmatic and consultative stamp on government.

On the international front he has also shown a down-to-earth skill that has endeared him to world leaders at appearances at the World Economic Forum at Davos, the Commonwealth heads of government in Trinidad and Tobago and at the African Union summit.

At the Copenhagen climate summit, Mr Zuma played a pivotal role in assisting a compromise between the United States and China in a new G5 consisting of the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa.

The new group known as BASIC could prove crucial in future global decision-making on key issues such as climate change, trade, the financial system, the battle for resources and multi-lateral reforms.

Mr Zuma could well be on the way not only to becoming Africa's next big man but a leader that the world cannot ignore.

Images: Media Club South Africa www.mediaclubsouthafrica.co.za